Submariner vs. Daytona? The market trend for both watches in 2026

Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026

In late 2021, a brand new "Green Submariner" (Submariner 126610LV) was selling for over HKD 180,000. At the same time, the steel Daytona (Daytona 116500LN white dial) was even more insane, with people scrambling to buy it for HKD 250,000. The entire market was immersed in a euphoric "everything I buy will appreciate" mindset, as if luxury watches would only ever get more expensive.

Today, a few years later, the fates of these two watches have diverged completely. Their stories, to some extent, mirror the entire pre-owned Rolex market.

Green Submariner: From Mass Hysteria to Rational Return

The Submariner 126610LV, or what everyone calls the "Green Submariner," was released in 2020, replacing the old 116610LV. The new model features a larger 41mm case, an upgraded 3235 movement (power reserve increased from 48 to 70 hours), and a Glidelock extension system on the bracelet clasp. The most significant visual difference is the green ceramic bezel, which replaced the old aluminum green bezel, elevating the overall feel of the watch by a notch.

The price trajectory of this watch is highly representative, a typical example of the recent watch market bubble:

• Late 2020 to Early 2021: Newly launched, extremely limited supply, HKD 130,000 - 150,000
• Mid to Late 2021 Peak: Market frenzy, HKD 170,000 - 185,000
• Mid-2022 Onwards - Decline: Interest rate hikes began, speculators withdrew, HKD 140,000 - 155,000
• 2023 to 2024: Continued gradual decline, gradually returning to reasonable levels, HKD 115,000 - 130,000
• 2025 to Present: Largely stabilized, with occasional fluctuations, HKD 105,000 - 120,000

From its peak, it has dropped by approximately 30-40%. This sounds painful, but there's an important context here: if you were one of the lucky ones who bought it at retail price from an AD (Authorized Dealer) (retail price was about HKD 72,000-75,000), you would still make a considerable profit if you sold it now. The question is, how many people actually managed to buy it at retail price? Most people bought it at an inflated price or even at its peak.

Daytona: A Completely Different Story

The story of the Daytona 116500LN is slightly different. This watch, released in 2016, features a ceramic bezel with a stainless steel case, and it drove the entire watch community wild from the moment it was launched – AD waiting lists were so long that you might not get one even ten years later. This waiting itself created an almost legendary status.

• 2021 to 2022 Peak: HKD 250,000 - 300,000 (white dial consistently HKD 10,000 - 20,000 more expensive than black dial)
• Second Half of 2022 - Sharp Decline: Adjusted with the overall market, HKD 200,000 - 230,000
• 2023: Stabilized at a new plateau, HKD 190,000 - 210,000
• After the release of the new 126500 in 2024: The old 116500, due to its "discontinued" status, stabilized or even slightly increased, HKD 185,000 - 210,000
• 2025 to Present: Remains stable, with active trading, HKD 190,000 - 215,000

The Daytona's decline was significantly smaller than the Green Submariner's, and it quickly stabilized after reaching a certain price point. Another point worth noting: the trading volume of the Daytona has remained active – those who want to sell can usually find a buyer without much waiting. This liquidity itself is a form of value.

Why Did the Fates of These Two Watches Diverge? Three Key Reasons

First, differences in supply. The Submariner is one of Rolex's highest-production sports watch series, with almost every AD worldwide receiving allocations. The Daytona has always been the lowest-production series among Rolex sports watches, with extremely limited quantities allocated to each store. When market enthusiasm fades and speculative demand disappears, items with high supply naturally fall faster and deeper, as a large amount of inventory floods the secondary market. The Daytona does not have this problem – there are fewer sellers, and less new inventory enters the market, so prices remain stable.

Second, different buyer demographics. Many people buy a Submariner because they "want to own a Rolex" or "heard it would appreciate in value." Their initial motivation is more casual, and their conviction to hold is not strong; they panic and sell when prices drop. Daytona buyers have a very different profile – they usually have a deeper understanding and passion for watches, and they decide to hold the watch for the long term when they buy it. Market fluctuations have less impact on them. This difference in buyer composition directly affects the magnitude of selling pressure in the market.

Third, the availability of alternatives. If you want a high-quality stainless steel dive watch, there are plenty of options on the market – Omega Seamaster, Tudor Black Bay, Blancpain Fifty Fathoms, and even Grand Seiko's dive series, each an excellent watch. But if you want a chronograph of similar prestige and historical significance? The choices are much fewer. The Daytona's position in the chronograph field is more unshakeable than the Submariner's position in the dive watch field.

If You Currently Hold One of These

Those holding a Green Submariner most frequently ask me: "Will it continue to fall?" Honestly, at its current level (40-50% above retail price), the room for a significant further drop is relatively limited – unless Rolex suddenly significantly increases production or the global economy experiences a severe recession. But for it to return to 2021 prices in the short term? I think the chances are very slim. This price level might be the "new normal" for a while.

Those holding a Daytona are usually more composed and rarely ask "when is a good time to sell." This watch has a "no-worry-about-selling" quality – even if the price no longer rises, its liquidity has always been good, and there's always someone willing to buy it if you want to sell. This certainty itself is very valuable.

If you are a Green Submariner owner who bought at its peak, your choice now is: accept the paper loss and sell, or continue to hold (which might be for a long time). There's no standard answer to this decision; it depends on your personal financial needs and mindset.

New vs. Old? Observing Discontinued Premium

In 2024, Rolex released the new Daytona 126500LN. While the external changes are not significant (mainly bezel and hand details), it's enough to make the old 116500 officially a "discontinued" model. History tells us that Rolex sports watches usually undergo an adjustment period after being discontinued, then prices stabilize or even rebound – the 116500LN is now starting to show this trend.

As for the Submariner 126610LV, it is currently still in production, with no news of discontinuation. Therefore, its price is mainly affected by market supply and demand and economic conditions; there is no "discontinued premium" adding value. If a new generation of Submariners is released in the future, causing it to be discontinued, the situation might change, but that's at least a few years away.

Practical Considerations for Selling

If you are seriously considering selling your watch, here are some experienced tips worth noting:

• Completeness of Accessories: A full set with the original box, warranty card, hang tags, and instruction manual can command a price difference of HKD 20,000 - 30,000 compared to just the watch itself. The warranty card is especially important.
• Condition of Dial and Case: Normal signs of wear from daily use are acceptable, but significant deep scratches or dents will affect the offer.
• Never Polish It Yourself: I must emphasize this. Many people think polishing will make the watch "look better" and sell for more, but it's actually the opposite. Knowledgeable buyers prefer to see original signs of use rather than a polished case – because each polishing thins the metal, this process is irreversible, effectively permanently reducing the value of the watch.
• Date on the Warranty Card: For the same model, a card from 2020 and a card from 2023 might have a slight price difference, as the age of the watch affects the warranty period.

To find out the exact value of your watch, the most direct way is to WhatsApp 94530784 with a few clear photos (dial, case back, side, accessories). We can usually provide a solid quote on the same day. Valuations are completely free, and there's no obligation to sell.

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Practical Questions Regarding Buyback "Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026"

Q: Is it suitable to get an appraisal for "Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026" now?

A: Yes, it is suitable. Watch market prices are influenced by market demand, preservation status, and physical condition. Getting an appraisal doesn't mean you have to sell, but it allows you to understand the approximate realizable value and avoid undervaluing your collection.

Q: When assessing "Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026," which details most affect the quote?

A: Hong Kong Buyback will primarily look at the brand model, year, movement condition, box, certificates, accessories, and external wear. The more complete the information, the closer the quote will be to the actual transaction price; if there are any flaws, we will clearly explain their impact on the price.

Q: If I have a similar item to "Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026," what should I provide when inquiring?

A: It is recommended to take clear photos of the front, back, seals, or corner details, then provide additional information on its origin, storage method, and quantity. After sending photos via WhatsApp 94530784, we can make an initial assessment and then arrange for in-store or on-site verification.

Reference Articles for "Submariner vs. Daytona: Market Trends for Both Watches in 2026"

• The Super-Premium Watch in the Safe! Rolex Daytona 116520 Black Dial Steel Daytona High-Price Buyback Reference
• Submariner and Daytona 2026 Resale Price Trends
• View Watch Buyback Services and Valuation Methods

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